Leading betting firm predicts Lib Dem win in Edinburgh North & Leith

5.25.00pm BST (GMT +0100) Fri 2nd Apr 2010

Betfair predict that the Liberal Democrats will win Edinburgh North and Leith

Liberal Democrats in Edinburgh North & Leith received a boost with the news that Betfair, the leading worldwide betting exchange, is predicting that the Liberal Democrats will win the Edinburgh North and Leith constituency from Labour at the general election in just a few weeks' time.

Not only that, but Betfair also confirms that the election here is a two-horse race between the Lib Dems and Labour. Betfair's commentary on the constituency notes that "Despite this seat's appearance on the Conservative target list, the real battle here is between Labour and the Liberal Democrats who were separated by just over 2000 votes at the 2005 general election."

This prediction will hold true, Betfair says, irrespective of whether the Conservatives win an overall majority in Parliament, or if the Lib Dems' national opinion poll rating remains the same. Betfair's website also notes that Liberal Democrat support tends to rise during an election campaign itself as the party receives more media attention, which may be an even greater factor this time as party leader Nick Clegg takes part in three televised leaders' debates. Betfair also suggest that the Party's Shadow Chancellor, Vince Cable, is the most trusted politician in Britain on the economy, which is likely to be the biggest issue for voters in the election.

Betfair's new election prediction website, www.electionpredict.com, went live in March and has a breakdown and predictions for every UK constituency. Betfair processes six million transactions every day, more than the combined total of Europe's stock exchanges.

Kevin Lang, the Liberal Democrat candidate for Edinburgh North and Leith, said:

"I welcome this prediction, which is the fourth time a Liberal Democrat win in this constituency has been predicted.* In contrast, there has never been a single polling or betting organisation which has predicted the Tories or SNP even coming close here.

"This prediction confirms what everyone in our area knows - this constituency will be a straight fight between the Lib Dems and Labour, with the other parties trailing far behind.

"I've spoken to thousands of people on their doorsteps in the past few months, and more and more people are switching to the Liberal Democrats as the only way to bring real change for our area, and they will get a hard-working local MP into the bargain."

• Liberal Democrat wins in Edinburgh North and Leith were predicted in the constituency by Tory blogger Iain Dale (January 2010) and Tory councillor Peter Crerar (March 2009), as well as in four national opinion polls published in September 2009 (ICM, Ipsos Mori, YouGov and BPIX).